演讲 | 李开复谈人工智能时代的生存指南How AI Can Save Our Humanity?

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我将不得不把她留在产房,然后赶回苹果总部,向公司CEO做一个关于人工智能的报告. 幸好我的女儿珍妮弗在正午出生了,没让我…

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1

How AI Can Save Our Humanity?

I’m going to talk about how AI and mankind can coexist, but first, we have to rethink about our human values. So, let me first make a confession about my errors in my values.

 

It was 11 o’clock, December 16, 1991. I was about to become a father for the first time. My wife, Shen-Ling, lay in the hospital bed going through a very difficult 12-hour labor. I sat by her bedside, but looked anxiously at my watch, and I knew something that she didn’t. I knew that if in one hour, our child didn’t come, I was going to leave her there and go back to work and make a presentation about AI to my boss, Apple’s CEO. Fortunately, my daughter was born at 11:30 – sparing me from doing the unthinkable, and to this day, I am so sorry for letting my work ethic take precedence over love for my family.

 

My AI talk, however, went off brilliantly.

 

Apple loved my work and decided to announce it at TED 1992, 26 years ago on this very stage. I thought I had made one of the biggest, most important discoveries in AI, and so did the “Wall Street Journal” on the following day.

 

But as far as discoveries went, it turned out, I didn’t discover India, or America. Perhaps I discovered a little island off of Portugal. But the AI era of discovery continued, and more scientists poured their souls into it. About 10 years ago, the grand AI discovery was made by three North American scientists, and it’s known as deep learning.

 

Deep learning is a technology that can take a huge amount of data within one single domain and learn to predict or decide at superhuman accuracy. For example, if we show the deep learning network a massive number of food photos, it can recognize food such as hot dog or no hot dog.

 

Or if we show it many pictures and videos and sensor data from driving on the highway, it can actually drive a car as well as a human being on the highway. And what if we showed this deep learning network all the speeches made by President Trump? Then this artificially intelligent President Trump, actually the network – can –

 

You like double oxymorons, huh?

 

So this network, if given the request to make a speech about AI, he, or it, might say –

 (Recording) Donald Trump: It’s a great thing to build a better world with artificial intelligence.

 

Kai-Fu Lee: And maybe in another language?

 

Donald Trump: (Speaking Chinese)

 

Kai-Fu Lee: You didn’t know he knew Chinese, did you?

 

So deep learning has become the core in the era of AI discovery, and that’s led by the U.S. But we’re now in the era of implementation, where what really matters is execution, product quality, speed and data. And that’s where China comes in. Chinese entrepreneurs, whom I fund as a venture capitalist, are incredible workers, amazing work ethic. My example in the delivery room is nothing compared to how hard people work in China. As an example, one startup tried to claim work-life balance: “Come work for us because we are 996.” And what does that mean? It means the work hours of 9am to 9pm, six days a week. That’s contrasted with other startups that do 997.

 

And the Chinese product quality has consistently gone up in the past decade, and that’s because of a fiercely competitive environment. In Silicon Valley, entrepreneurs compete in a very gentlemanly fashion, sort of like in old wars in which each side took turns to fire at each other.

 

But in the Chinese environment, it’s truly a gladiatorial fight to the death. In such a brutal environment, entrepreneurs learn to grow very rapidly, they learn to make their products better at lightning speed, and they learn to hone their business models until they’re impregnable. As a result, great Chinese products like WeChat and Weibo are arguably better than the equivalent American products from Facebook and Twitter.

 

And the Chinese market embraces this change and accelerated change and paradigm shifts. As an example, if any of you go to China, you will see it’s almost cashless and credit card-less, because that thing that we all talk about, mobile payment, has become the reality in China. In the last year, 18.8 trillion U.S. dollars were transacted on mobile internet, and that’s because of very robust technologies built behind it. It’s even bigger than the China GDP. And this technology, you can say, how can it be bigger than the GDP? Because it includes all transactions: wholesale, channels, retail, online, offline, going into a shopping mall or going into a farmers’ market like this. The technology is used by 700 million people to pay each other, not just merchants, so it’s peer to peer, and it’s almost transaction-fee-free. And it’s instantaneous, and it’s used everywhere. And finally, the China market is enormous. This market is large, which helps give entrepreneurs more users, more revenue, more investment, but most importantly, it gives the entrepreneurs a chance to collect a huge amount of data which becomes rocket fuel for the AI engine. So as a result, the Chinese AI companies have leaped ahead so that today, the most valuable companies in computer vision, speech recognition, speech synthesis, machine translation and drones are all Chinese companies.

 

So, with the U.S. leading the era of discovery and China leading the era of implementation, we are now in an amazing age where the dual engine of the two superpowers are working together to drive the fastest revolution in technology that we have ever seen as humans. And this will bring tremendous wealth, unprecedented wealth: 16 trillion dollars, according to PwC, in terms of added GDP to the worldwide GDP by 2030. It will also bring immense challenges in terms of potential job replacements. Whereas in the Industrial Age, it created more jobs because craftsman jobs were being decomposed into jobs in the assembly line, so more jobs were created. But AI completely replaces the individual jobs in the assembly line with robots. And it’s not just in factories, but truckers, drivers and even jobs like telesales, customer service and hematologists as well as radiologists over the next 15 years are going to be gradually replaced by artificial intelligence. And only the creative jobs –

 

I have to make myself safe, right? Really, the creative jobs are the ones that are protected, because AI can optimize but not create.

 

But what’s more serious than the loss of jobs is the loss of meaning, because the work ethic in the Industrial Age has brainwashed us into thinking that work is the reason we exist, that work defined the meaning of our lives. And I was a prime and willing victim to that type of workaholic thinking. I worked incredibly hard. That’s why I almost left my wife in the delivery room, that’s why I worked 996 alongside my entrepreneurs. And that obsession that I had with work ended abruptly a few years ago when I was diagnosed with 4th-stage lymphoma. The PET scan here shows over 20 malignant tumors jumping out like fireballs, melting away my ambition. But more importantly, it helped me reexamine my life. Knowing that I may only have a few months to live caused me to see how foolish it was for me to base my entire self-worth on how hard I worked and the accomplishments from hard work. My priorities were completely out of order. I neglected my family. My father had passed away, and I never had a chance to tell him I loved him. My mother had dementia and no longer recognized me, and my children had grown up.

 

During my chemotherapy, I read a book by Bronnie Ware who talked about dying wishes and regrets of the people in the deathbed. She found that facing death, nobody regretted that they didn’t work hard enough in this life. They only regretted that they didn’t spend enough time with their loved ones and that they didn’t spread their love.

 

So, I am fortunately today in remission.

 

So, I can be back at TED again to share with you that I have changed my ways. I now only work 965 – occasionally 996, but usually 965. I moved closer to my mother, my wife usually travels with me, and when my kids have vacation, if they don’t come home, I go to them. So it’s a new form of life that helped me recognize how important it is that love is for me, and facing death helped me change my life, but it also helped me see a new way of how AI should impact mankind and work and coexist with mankind, that really, AI is taking away a lot of routine jobs, but routine jobs are not what we’re about.

 

Why we exist is love. When we hold our newborn baby, love at first sight, or when we help someone in need, humans are uniquely able to give and receive love, and that’s what differentiates us from AI.

 

Despite what science fiction may portray, I can responsibly tell you that AI has no love. When AlphaGo defeated the world champion Ke Jie, while Ke Jie was crying and loving the game of go, AlphaGo felt no happiness from winning and certainly no desire to hug a loved one.

 

So, how do we differentiate ourselves as humans in the age of AI? We talked about the axis of creativity, and certainly that is one possibility, and now we introduce a new axis that we can call compassion, love, or empathy. Those are things that AI cannot do. So as AI takes away the routine jobs, I like to think we can, we should and we must create jobs of compassion. You might ask how many of those there are, but I would ask you: Do you not think that we are going to need a lot of social workers to help us make this transition? Do you not think we need a lot of compassionate caregivers to give more medical care to more people? Do you not think we’re going to need 10 times more teachers to help our children find their way to survive and thrive in this brave new world? And with all the newfound wealth, should we not also make labors of love into careers and let elderly accompaniment or homeschooling become careers also?

 

This graph is surely not perfect, but it points at four ways that we can work with AI. AI will come and take away the routine jobs and in due time, we will be thankful. AI will become great tools for the creatives so that scientists, artists, musicians and writers can be even more creative. AI will work with humans as analytical tools that humans can wrap their warmth around for the high-compassion jobs. And we can always differentiate ourselves with the uniquely capable jobs that are both compassionate and creative, and using and leveraging our irreplaceable brains and hearts. So, there you have it: a blueprint of coexistence for humans and AI.

 

AI is serendipity. It is here to liberate us from routine jobs, and it is here to remind us what it is that makes us human. So, let us choose to embrace AI and to love one another.

 

Thank you.

 

那是19911216日上午11点,我即将初为人父。我的妻子先玲躺在产床上,历经着12个小时的辛苦分娩。

 

我人还在她床边,眼睛却不停地瞄着手表——我没有告诉她的是如果我们的第一个孩子没能在一小时内出生,我将不得不把她留在产房,然后赶回苹果总部,向公司CEO做一个关于人工智能的报告。

 

幸好我的女儿珍妮弗在正午出生了,没让我做出件荒唐事来。我把工作摆在家庭前面,为此,我对先玲和珍妮弗抱有歉意。

 

不过,我向苹果CEO做的报告进展倒是很顺利。1992年,也就是26年前,就在TED这个讲台上,苹果公司决定启动我的人工智能项目。我当时笃信我们有了个大发现,显然第二天的《华尔街日报》也是这么想的。

 

不过事实上就该发现的重要性而言,我的这个人工智能的发现既算不上发现印度也比不上发现美洲,勉强算得上是葡萄牙附近的一个小岛吧。

 

人工智能的发现时代从此便一发不可收拾,接着在大约十年前,几个美国人和加拿大人有了个重大发现,那就是深度学习。深度学习是一款了不起的优化软件,它使用某一狭窄领域内的海量数据,从而做出精准度超人的决策或预测。比如:

 

深度学习在接受食物照片的训练后,就能识别出任何食物照片,包括我们最爱的热狗或非热狗食品。

 

在接受大量交通状况的训练后,深度学习就能比高速公路上的多数人驾驶得更好。

 

用特朗普总统的所有演讲对其加以训练后,我们就能要求人工智能特朗普总统谈些和人工智能有关的事……甚至是用中文来说。

 

在美国引领的发现时代中,深度学习是迄今为止最重要的发明,没有之一。自深度学习出现突破以来,我们就迈入了人工智能的实践时代,在这个时代里,要紧的是执行力、产品质量、速度和数据。中国因此顺势而入。

 

中国的科技执行力是基于令人难以置信的勤奋工作。我差点弃妻子于产房不顾的那事儿,和中国的企业家相比,简直就是小巫见大巫了。我在中国做风险投资,有一回见了个声称自己能给员工提供极佳工作生活平衡的初创公司,理由是他们采用996工作制。什么是996工作制?是从早上9点工作到晚上9点,一周工作6天。中国的大多数其他初创公司采用的是997工作制。

 

由于竞争激烈,中国的产品质量有了大幅提高。硅谷的竞争像古时的战争,交战双方轮流开火。

 

在中国,竞争好似角斗士们在竞技场上毫不设防的殊死搏斗。激烈的竞争逼着企业家们雷厉风行地改进产品,并开发出可立于不败之地的商业模式。所以,微信和微博可以说已演进成比脸书和推特还优秀的产品了。

 

中国市场迅速向新产品和新范式张开怀抱。仅在过去3年内,移动支付取代现金和信用卡,成了头号交易工具。2017年,移动支付的交易总额高达18.8万亿美元,甚至超过了中国的GDP。这是怎么做到的呢?中国的移动支付建立在世界顶级的基础设施上:交易费几乎为零、支持小额支付而且点对点。超过7亿的中国用户可以互相进行支付转账,无论是在线上还是线下、是进行借贷还是赠礼,是给孩子、村里的农民还是乞丐。

 

中国巨大的市场体量又为之推波助澜,它产生的海量数据是人工智能发展的关键助力。中国拥有数据优势:中国的手机用户比是美国的3倍,食品外卖量是美国的10倍,移动支付额是美国的50倍,共享单车乘骑数是美国的300倍。

 

有了这些海量数据,中国企业的人工智能便如虎添翼。如今,中国在计算机视觉、无人机、语音识别、语音合成和机器翻译等领域拥有世界上最有价值的公司。

 

美国研究人员引领人工智能的发现,中国工程师们则成了人工智能应用的领军人物。这两个超级大国将带来史上最迅猛、最波澜壮阔的技术革命。人工智能将产生前所未有的巨大财富。据普华永道估计,到2030年,人工智能将带来16万亿美元的全球GDP增长。这会帮助消除贫穷和饥饿。

 

然而,人工智能也将严重威胁许多人的生计。

 

工业革命把手工工匠的工作转化成大量常规工作(如生产线工作),但是人工智能革命将彻底取代这些生产线工作。不出十五年,驾驶、电话销售、卡车司机甚至是放射科医生等类似工作和事务也将被人工智能取而代之。在这场人工智能摧毁工作的浩劫中,唯有创造性工作才能从中全身而退。

 

然而,人类将面临的最大考验并非是失去工作,而是失去生活的意义。工业革命催生的工作伦理给我们很多人洗了脑,让我们相信工作决定了我们生活的意义。

 

在这波造就工作狂的洗脑浪潮中,我也深受其害,甚至因此差点错过了珍妮弗出生那一刻。曾经的我和我投资的企业家们一道,朝九晚九,一周六天地勤恳工作。

 

五年前,我对工作的痴迷戛然而止,因为我被确诊患有第四期淋巴瘤。

 

我的PET扫描显示,二十多个恶性肿瘤如火球般喷涌而出,把我的壮志雄心付之一炬。突然间,我面临生命仅剩数月的可能。

 

在那段极为不安的日子里,我思考良多。我开始看清,把自我价值完全建立在工作成就上是多么愚蠢。

 

我生活中的优先级完全本末倒置。我疏于关心家庭。我的父亲过世了,我再没机会告诉他我爱他;我的母亲失智了,再也认不出我;我的孩子们都已长大成人。

 

我在化疗期间读了邦妮·韦尔(Broonie Ware)的书,写的是人们濒死时的懊悔。她发现没人希望自己曾更努力地工作。大家都希望自己曾花更多时间与所爱之人相伴相守。

 

值得庆幸的是,我的病情现在有所缓解,所以我可以重回TED舞台和你们来做分享:我现在花更多时间陪伴我爱的人。我搬到离母亲更近的住所,也会经常与妻子相伴出游。当女儿们回到家中,我会享受跟她们在一起的时光。

 

我的濒死经历不仅改变了我的生活,也让我重新审视人工智能对于人类的意义。在所有重复性工作上,人工智能都将高出人类一筹。但我们并非因为擅长重复性工作而为人。是爱定义了我们的人性。

 

爱是我们见证孩子降生那一刻的感动;爱是一见钟情时的悸动;爱让我们向所需之人伸出援手。唯独人类才能爱与被爱。爱使我们有别于人工智能。

 

无论科幻电影是如何描述的,我可以负责任地告诉各位,人工智能程序没有爱的能力。阿法狗或许能在围棋比赛中击败世界冠军,但它无法从胜利中感受到喜悦,也不会在胜利后产生拥抱心所爱之人的渴望。

 

与人工智能相比,人类胜在有创造力和同情心,因此,我们该对之前的图表予以反思,并加上一个新的同情心维度。

 

常规工作虽会被人工智能取代,但我们可以创造出许多关爱型工作。你们可能会质疑我们是否真需要那么多“服务性”工作。但是在后人工智能时代,你们难道不认为我们需要更多社会工作者来帮助人们平稳过渡吗?你们难道不认为我们需要更多富有同情心的护理人员吗?他们虽然还是使用人工智能进行医疗诊断和治疗,但却可以用人性之爱的温暖包裹冷冰冰的机器。你们难道不认为我们需要数以十倍计的教师,来手把手帮助孩子们在这个美丽新世界中生存和发展吗?

 

况且,我们创造出的财富如此之多,现在该创造以人性关爱为本的工作了,如老年人护工和家庭学校中身兼数职的“老师家长”。

 

这幅图表当然不甚完美,但展示了四种我们与人工智能共事的方式:第一,人工智能将代替我们承担重复性工作。第二,人工智能工具将帮助科学家和艺术家提升创造力。第三,对于非创造性、关爱型工作,人工智能将进行分析思考,人类以温暖和同情心相辅相成。最后,人类将以其独一无二的头脑和心灵,做着只有人类擅长、以人类创造力和同情心取胜的工作。这就是人工智能和人类共生的蓝图。

 

人工智能的发展虽是机缘巧合,对人类文明来说却来得正好。它将把我们从常规工作中解放出来,迫使我们思考人因何为人。

 

让我们选择善用机器,互相关爱吧!

 

谢谢大家!

演讲 | 李开复谈人工智能时代的生存指南How AI Can Save Our Humanity?


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